The Kind of Win That Just Doesn’t Happen

August 10, 2013 at 10:07 am | Posted in 1st Place! | Leave a comment

lan_tba_win_chart_2013-08-09The main takeaway from last night’s game? That literally anything can happen in baseball, as you can see from the absurd FanGraphs win expectancy chart, which bottomed out at 0.7% after Carlos Marmol put the first two men on in the top of the eighth, down 6-1. In order to win, so much had to happen at the end. Nick Punto‘s sliced double had to fall just within the foul line, which it did. Ben Zobrist had to terribly misplay Mark Ellis‘ triple in left field, which he did — shocking because Tampa Bay has long been among the most effective defensive teams in the game.

And of course, Fernando Rodney had to not only be completely unable to retire any hitter more dangerous than Dee Gordon, he had to help the Dodgers avoid the inability to pinch-run for the slow-footed Adrian Gonzalez by taking a potentially inning-ending double play ball and launching it to center field.

I’m a firm believer that you make your own luck, and the lousy Dodger defense did their best to make some terrible luck for Chris Capuano early on. But I can’t explain this, because the Rays are an excellent team. This just doesn’t happen, especially when you’re down six runs to David Price. This is just another example of a team that looks like they’re really building towards something special… and they have Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw on the mound for the rest of the weekend. The words, they fail me.


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